Before the special operation started on February 24, 2022, there was a lot of rhetoric being spewed from the west talking about the impact their sanction “packages” will have on Russia’s economy.
The aim of the sanctions that were being conjured up among ThinkTanks and various heads of government mainly from the west was aiming to cripple Russia’s economy which would cause some sort of revolution among the residents.
This revolt would lead to regime change and Vladimir Putin being ousted as a president and bringing in a less hostile president. It seems so far all of their assumptions have failed. If we should judge it quantitatively, the rouble is at its strongest point since 2020.
If we should look at the USD/RUB pair, the rouble is now being traded at $66 which is far cry from what western financial analysts had expected.
No doubt, Russia’s economy is taking a hit as she has become the most sanctioned country in the world. Surprisingly, the strength of the rouble shows that they are Russia’s economy is pretty resilient and sanctions might not be enough to end the war in Ukraine. Instead, the sanctions are backfiring on the entire European Union and the rest of the world.
Russia’s economy is important on the world stage not just in oil and gas, but in agriculture, minerals, and other rare earth resources that are used to build technological products.
The longer the war plays out, the harder it will be for everyone involved as it is obvious that the leaders have drastically miscalculated and are torturing their own citizens in the process as inflation continues to rise.
Currently, it’s hard to predict how this will play out, the West is doubling down and its position by sending more weapons to Ukraine, providing military aid, and creating more sanction packages for Russia.
All these methods are reactionary more than strategic as it is clear that they are clueless on how to stop the current conflict without a direct military conflict which would be catastrophic.
